The Libyan situation runs a very high probability of becoming another 7-year Iraq or another 10-year Afghanistan. The military – who are good at waging war but lacking sufficient intellect and motivation to conduct politics and/or to wage a peace – tend to take control. The politicians are relieved, since they themselves have no answer and no vision on how to resolve the problem they are in. So the situation lurches on, with economic, social, political and psychological consequences….
Gaddafi obviously has backing from a few Libyans – we know this from TV and Video clips. Whether this is 1-3-5-7 or what percentage of the total Libyan population and/or voters we do not know. Neither does Gaddafi himself, since he has not run elections since 40 years. One thing we do know – it is most definitely not 51 or even 49% of the population or the electorate. If he is lucky it will reach 10%, and most of them will be through financial inducement or fear of recrimination.
The way out of the present expensive impasse is clearly an election. But this will not be any ordinary election – it will be an election in a war zone or conflict zone, and it must be Fraud-Free. This will be difficult it not impossible using conventional voting technology.
Dont worry – I have the solution. 4 years ago I developed a Fraud Proof Voting System specially designed for Zimbabwean or Nigerian conditions (http://cd3wd.com/seev/index.htm ) – this also happens to be ideal for conflict zones.
The problem is that – for their own reasons (to do with the number and ratio of pro-western dictators to anti-western dictators), the West/International Community does NOT like either my system or even the whole general concept. Strange, coming from those who shout ‘Democracy’ from the rooftops….
The paradox is now that the cats are firmly out of the bag. The West up till now has opposed FPV (Fraud Proof Voting) on the basis that it would eliminate their financially-advantageous Western-friendly benevolent (?!) dictators throughout the Third World and Middle East. However, these Western-friendly, so-called benevolent dictators are now exposed as being non-benevolent, and are falling like flies. Therefore it is actually now in the West’s interest to prevent any crazy guys/extremists of whatever hue (including Islamic Fundamentalists) getting into power and/or staying in power after their sell-by-date by foul means (i.e. electoral fraud).
Since we put a man on the moon in 1969, if anyone really doubts that my system or a version of it does not cut the mustard, then get a collection of bright people together of the various industry sectors required (software, elections, management consultants, thinkers etc) and hammer out something which would work – simple!
I am in London and am immediately available for free-of-charge presentation and discussion.
Alex Weir, London, Harare and Gaborone